With the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, the cryptocurrency ecosystem has led a small-scale bull run. The financial derivatives market is gaining significant attention, injecting more vitality into the market. As of now, news about the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, Bitcoin halving, and potential interest rate cuts in the United States in 2024 all suggest the possibility of a new bull market in 2024.

2023 Market Review

• The cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn in 2022 due to the collapse of industry giant FTX, but 2023 unexpectedly emerged as a fruitful year for Bitocin as it outperformed most other popular assets, with a nearly 160% annual increase. Despite this, the market's trend throughout 2023 was not smooth sailing; instead, it resembled a roller coaster ride, testing the resilience of investors.

• Around Christmas 2022, the cryptocurrency market began a downward trend, causing cryptocurrency prices to reach their lowest levels. However, signs of easing inflation in the United States, as indicated by the Federal Reserve, boosted global markets, and funds started flowing back into the cryptocurrency market.
 

• However, with U.S. regulatory authorities intensifying criticisms and implementing more regulations on the crypto industry, Bitcoin experienced a 22.4% drop in price in mid-february.
 

• Following regulatory pressure from Gensler and the SEC, the price of Bitcoin led a strong recovery, approaching the $30,000 mark. However, it struggled to break through this barrier and eventually experienced a sharp decline.
 

• After a lackluster performance in May, the cryptocurrency market saw a renewed rebound in June, with prices surging 28% over the following weeks. 
 

• Following an aggressive short-selling period in June, the market reached mid-year peaks in mid-July, only to face a significant downturn with expanding losses, persisting pessimism until August.
 

• While cryptocurrencies initiated an upward trend in late September, October witnessed further highs, with Bitcoin's price rapidly surpassing $30,000, experiencing a daily increase of up to 14.5%.
 

• After three quarters of relatively stable prices, Bitcoin started to gain significant momentum in December. By mid-December, the cryptocurrency market reached its highest point in 2023.
 

• Currently, the cryptocurrency market is at its highest position in recent years. The market appears to be very optimistic as we welcome the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event.
 

2024 Key Bullish Factors

• (1) January 10, 2024

SEC approves the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF.

• (2) January 17, 2024
Ethereum initiates the "EIP-4844" upgrade, implementing the "Blob" transaction type through "sharding" to provide more space for blockchain expansion and reduce transaction fees on Layer2 blockchains. Transaction costs may decrease by 10–100 times.

• (3) April 2024
Less than 4 months remain until the fourth Bitcoin halving, expected on April 23, 2024, reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
 

• (4) May 23, 2024
Seven institutions have applied for Ethereum spot ETF listings, and the SEC is expected to notify the audit results by the end of May.

2024 Bitcoin Market Outlook

• (1) Approval for the Bitcoin Spot ETF is expected to attract over $240 billion into Bitcoin within the first year. The significant influx of funds from traditional financial sources, coupled with reduced selling pressure from miners, could trigger a substantial price surge.
 

• (2) Bitcoin's block reward is set to halve in April 2024. This reduction will impact the amount of Bitcoin miners receive for processing transactions, leading to a decrease in the overall Bitcoin supply. Previous halvings in 2017 and 2021 resulted in significant bull markets. In 2024, with substantial investments, rising demand, and a 50% reduction in supply, a potential exponential price increase is on the horizon.
 

• (3) Starting December 15, 2024, Bitcoin will gain support from fair value accounting standards for the fiscal year. This change recognizes virtual assets as an investable financial asset category, acknowledging their growing importance in the financial sector.

2024 Bitcoin Halving

2024 Ethereum Market Outlook

• (1) The market anticipates accelerated approval for an Ethereum Spot ETF after the Bitcoin ETF is approved.

• (2) One of Ethereum's major upgrades in 2024 is the Ethereum Cancun-Deneb (Dencun) upgrade, referred to as the Cancun upgrade. Key upgrade features include:

 ○ Enhanced scalability.

 ○ Improved consensus and security.

 ○ Optimized Gas efficiency for increased security.

 ○ Significant reduction in transaction costs.

• (3) With substantial cost reductions, a thriving ecosystem, and the potential for broader adoption, Ethereum is projected to reach around $5,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025. If an Ethereum Spot ETF is approved, there is a chance the price could reach $8,000.

Ethereum Upgrade Timeline

2024 Solana Market Outlook

• (1) With global powers increasingly recognizing the value and prices of cryptocurrencies, the integration of traditional and virtual financial assets is expected to accelerate. This trend could hasten the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies in everyday life.
 

• (2) In 2024, Solana's collaborations and range of applications have the potential to expand rapidly, especially following the SEC approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Various industries may leverage Solana's signature verification mechanism to execute processes and workflows, free from time and geographical constraints.
 

• (3) With the growing adoption of applications in DeFi, NFTs, and other sectors, Solana's diverse utility may contribute to pushing its value towards the $600 milestone in 2024.

2024 Technology Focus: DePIN

• DePIN

 ○ DePIN, the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, is an innovative network that utilizes token incentives to motivate individuals to share their resources. This resource-sharing extends across various domains, including storage space, communication bandwidth, cloud computing, and energy. The emergence of DePIN transforms the infrastructure, traditionally provided by centralized enterprises, into a globally collaborative crowdsourced form where users actively participate.

• Layer2

 ○ Scalability: Surpassing the performance of the underlying layer. Supporting a broader range of transaction types.

 ○ Security: Defined by four key attributes: liveliness, censorship resistance, reorg resistance, and validity.

 ○ Decentralization: Accessing L2 data and verifying information in a decentralized manner.

In 2024, the Bitcoin landscape is poised for a resurgence, with thriving developments in its ecosystem such as DeFi, Meme, and NFT. Solutions like Ordinals, Stacks, and BRC20 are set to act as catalysts driving this progression. While discussions about suppressing the continuous growth of this ecosystem persist, undeniable market forces and increasing mining revenues will dominate, compelling supporters to embrace the evolving narrative within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Moreover, a substantial surge in venture capital is anticipated in 2024, serving as a crucial indicator as the market value of digital assets continues to rise. The total venture capital investment reached $6.5 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting the impact of rising prices. With the prosperity of the financing market in the second half of the year, monthly financing amounts are expected to soar to an average of $3 billion, reminiscent of the boom in 2021/22. By the end of 2024, the total venture capital investment is expected to reach $24.5 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 130% in private funds. Overall, 2024 promises significant transformations and growth in the Bitcoin ecosystem and the digital asset market.

*For reference only and not guaranteed profit, exercise caution when entering the market.

*Strictly adhere to stop-loss and the principle of using no more than 5% of total funds for light trading.